doubling cube #011

is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 113

9 point match

pip: 92 score: 7 is Player 1

XGID=-a-BCDBB----b-Ba---cdca---:0:0:1:00:7:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Baš kao što je to Kit Woolsey objasnio u svome komentaru u poziciji #009, nikad se ne zna što će protivnik napraviti. Ovdje sam se mislio da li poslati kjub ili keširati budući nema puno gammona, svega 17%, pa stoga nema puno razloga za nastaviti igru mada crni ne može preokrenuti u jednom bacanju da ima take, osim možda nakon 21 bijelog i 61 crnog kojim preskače blokadu. 21 pips prednosti, jedan checker iza 5 polja duge blokade s time da nije na početku primea, pa ga ne može preskočiti svakom 6 osim sa 61. Čisti pass za money.

Kit Woolsey said in his OLM comment which you can find in #009, "You never know when your opponent can make blunder and take clear pass." Here I was thinking OtB should I cash or play on for gammon. Although there are only 17% G's here there is no sequence, maybe except 21 for white and escaping 61 for black, after which black can take the cube. 21 pips racing advantage, one checker back behind five point prime with blocked sixes. Clear pass for money.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	84,88% (G: 16,93% B: 0,32%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	15,12% (G: 2,24% B: 0,10%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	85,66% (G: 16,75% B: 0,35%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	14,34% (G: 1,86% B: 0,08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,847
Double:	+1,730
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,978 (-0,022)
Double/Take:	+1,627 (+0,627)
Double/Drop:	+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
4537 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,003 (+0,974...+0,981)
Confidence Double:	± 0,008 (+1,619...+1,635)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 34 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21 

2a7a znače automatic redouble crnom jer u slučaju da izgubi igru gubi cijeli meč. Međutim 15% šansi za pobjedu nije dovoljno u ovakvoj poziciji praktički bez gammona za crnog. Zanimljivo je da bijeli na ovom rezultati tehnički može nastaviti igrati na gammon. Za to ima 16% šansi, ali time ne pruža priliku crnome da uzme i pogriješi. To se u meču i dogodilo.

At 2a 7a black has automatic redouble but 15% game winning chances is not enough for take. There are practicaly no gammons for him. It is interesting how white at this score can play on for gammon. He has 16% chances and double is slightly error 0.013. But you never know when your opponent can blunder and take clear pass. It happened in this match, 0.508 error.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	85,51% (G: 16,29% B: 0,67%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	14,49% (G: 1,98% B: 0,09%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	85,98% (G: 15,70% B: 0,48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	14,02% (G: 1,40% B: 0,08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,968
Double:	+2,009
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+1,013
Double/Take:	+1,521 (+0,508)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (-0,013)
Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,005 (+1,008...+1,018)
Confidence Double:	± 0,012 (+1,509...+1,533)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 20 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross