doubling cube #010

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 152

9 point match

pip: 152 score: 7 is Player 1

XGID=-a---aEBC-A-dB---c-d-b--B-:0:0:-1:00:7:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Kod 0-0 ili za money play crni je kratak za inicijalni kjub za čak 0.146. Ima bolji board, razdvojene stražnje checkere i direktan šut na protivnikov blot, ali 4 pipsa efektivno zaostaje u trci. Bijeli ima vrlo lagani take. Ne znam tko bi ovo pasao. Protivnika treba staviti pred težu odluku i pružiti mu priliku da pogriješi. Ukoliko crni ne pogodi bijelog, a ne napravi ankoru na 20.polju, može se naći u nevolji jer bijeli sa 11 checkera u zoni može napasti, ali i ojačati blokadu. Za početni double crni je trebao barem napraviti ankoru na 20.polju. 

For money black is short to initial double by 0.146. He has stronger board, already split back checkers and has direct shot on opponent's blot but four pips is effectively behind. White has very easy take. I have no idea who could pass this one. We should put our opponent under more pressure to make harder decision where he can make error. If black doesn't shot white and fails to anchor, he could find himself in trouble because white with 11 checkers into zone could attack or extent his prime. For initial double black has to make at least golden point.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	60,29% (G: 19,10% B: 1,19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,71% (G: 10,04% B: 0,43%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60,37% (G: 19,49% B: 1,19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,63% (G: 9,93% B: 0,44%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,304
Double:	+0,621
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,451
Double/Take:	+0,305 (-0,146)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,549)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,013 (+0,439...+0,464)
Confidence Double:	± 0,015 (+0,290...+0,320)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 3 hours 58 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21 

Kod 8a2a drugačija je priča. Crni može iskoristiti sva 4 boda od gammona dok bijeli sjedi na mrtvoj kocki, nikad neće reduplati, pa će se trebati igrati do kraja. Otpadaju one pobjede bijelog koje bi pri nekom drugom rezultatu dobio sa redouble/pass. Isto tako 10% gammona ne znače ništa više od običnih pobjeda. Zbog toga crni ranije može poslati kjub jer bijeli ranije i passava. Međutim, s ankorom, ovdje ima samo 18% gammona dok 2 boda vode bijeloga  u 40% slučajeva do pobjede u meču. Dovoljno za take.

At 8a2a black can be more aggressive with cube because he can uses all four points from gammons and white will seat on dead cube and will never redouble so this game will be played until the end. There will be no wins with redouble/pass for white in this case. Also 10% of gammons are killed with this cube. It is the reason why black can sends cube more earlier. But with anchor there is only 18% gammons here while two points leads white in 40% games to match win so he has clear take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	60,35% (G: 18,62% B: 1,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,65% (G: 11,46% B: 1,45%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60,76% (G: 18,91% B: 1,03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,24% (G: 12,20% B: 1,34%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,226
Double:	+0,793
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,742 (-0,051)
Double/Take:	+0,793
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,207)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,009 (+0,733...+0,751)
Confidence Double:	± 0,011 (+0,782...+0,804)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross