doubling cube #012

is Player 2 score: 6 pip: 155

9 point match

pip: 161 score: 7 is Player 1

XGID=-a-a--EAC---eD---b-c-b-aB-:0:0:-1:00:7:6:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Za money play ovo je teški nodouble i sumnjam da bi se našao neki igrač koji bi napravio pass. Crni je samo 2 pipsa efektivno u prednosti, ima 2 checkera pozadi, doduše razdvojena koja prijete blotu bijeloga. Međutim, crni također ima blot u svojoj kući dok bijeli ima ankoru. Previše je igre ovdje ostalo i ne znam nakon koje sekvence bi crni izgubio svoj market. Možda nakon 64 gdje bi hitnuo bijelog i pokrio 2.polje, nakon čega bi bijeli ostao na baru. Vjerojatno i nakon toga bijeli ima take. Ali kao što kaže Woolsey treba protivniku pružiti priliku za grešku. 

For money this is clear nodouble and I doubt there will be any player who will pass here. Black is only 2 pips ahead in race, has 2 checkers back and blot in his homeboard. His back checkers are split and he has double shot on white's outfield blot but white has anchor and there are no much sequences after which he could lose his market. Maybe after hit+cover and dance for white. Even then white can take possibly. But as Woolsey said: "You never know."

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	56,51% (G: 18,35% B: 1,24%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,49% (G: 11,36% B: 0,55%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56,70% (G: 18,42% B: 1,27%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,30% (G: 11,21% B: 0,54%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,207
Double:	+0,427
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,305
Double/Take:	+0,073 (-0,231)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,695)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,012 (+0,293...+0,317)
Confidence Double:	± 0,017 (+0,056...+0,090)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 5 hours 01 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21 

3a2a je specifičan skor. Onaj koji vodi može pasati lako gammonish pozicije, no može uzimati čak i dublje one u kojima nema gammona, poput holding game i trke jer mu pobjeda u igri znači meč. Osim toga gammoni mu sa kockom na 2 ionako ne igraju, a kako ih nema izostaje i efekt killanja istih. Ovdje crni ima samo 18% gammona i za 0.023 je kratak za double. Ako izmjenimo poziciju da checker sa 6.polja zatvori 2.polje onda dobivamo double/take.

3a2a is very specific score. Leader can pass very early in gammonish positions but take deeper in non gammonis ones like holding games or racing games because game win means match win for him. In addition, gammons means nothing for him with cube on two and there is no negative effect of killing gammons in such non-gammonish positions. Here black has only 18% G's and need 0.023 more to justify double even at this score. If we slightly change position and cover 2pt with spare from 6pt then we get double/take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	56,83% (G: 18,47% B: 3,95%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,17% (G: 13,12% B: 1,54%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56,59% (G: 18,51% B: 5,22%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,41% (G: 13,73% B: 1,61%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,238
Double:	+0,545
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,568
Double/Take:	+0,545 (-0,023)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,432)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,012 (+0,556...+0,581)
Confidence Double:	± 0,013 (+0,532...+0,558)
Double Decision confidence:	99,3%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross