doubling cube #007

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 146

9 point match

pip: 102 score: 4 is Player 1

XGID=-bB--BE-D---bB-aababbb----:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Da li je ovo take? Sudeći po trci i dva zaostala crna checkera našlo bi se igrača koji bi pasali kod 0-0 što čini ovo praktički korektnim kjubom. Međutim, zašto je ovo tehnički lagan take kako rollout kaže? Struktura bijelog nije fleksibilna što može uskoro uzrokovati ostavljanje šuteva. Premjestimo li dva checkera sa 6pt na 3pt, crni ima pass. Ofenzivna pozicija crnog je odlična i eventualni hit znači pobjedu. Crni ima i timing za acepoint anchor game, a bijeli će mu gotovo sigurno ponuditi uskoro i pokoji indirekt. Malo gammona olakšava uzimanje kocke.

Is this take? According race and two black's back checkers which are still on 24pt, there will be surely some players who would pass this one, which makes such cube practically correct. Why this position is such easy technical take as rollout stated? Well, white's front structure doesn't flexible. Those stack are blots reservoirs. If we put two checkers from 6pt to 4pt then black will has pass. Black's offensive position is strong and he has timing to preserve his board and play acept game. Also, white will leave some indirects in most cases. 

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67,76% (G: 12,77% B: 0,64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,24% (G: 3,38% B: 0,12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68,22% (G: 12,61% B: 0,57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,78% (G: 3,19% B: 0,13%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,454
Double:	+0,926
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,725
Double/Take:	+0,706 (-0,020)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,275)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,008 (+0,718...+0,733)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,696...+0,715)
Double Decision confidence:	99,9%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21 

Greška od 0.020 za money game se pretvara u blunder 0.099 pri 5a8a iako 4 boda u gotovo 13% gammona od ukupno ~68% pobjeda vode bijeloga na Crawford game. Očito su dva stacka, otvoreno 3. i 4.polje, te zatvoreno duboko 2.polje, preveliki nedostatak u strukturi. Jedan od razloga je svakako činjenica da dva boda vode bijelog na uvijek nezgodnih 3 boda do pobjede, dok 1 bod ide na zahvalnih 4 do pobjede. Ispada kako ovaj bod nije dovoljno vrijedan.

0.020 error for money becomes ~0.100 blunder at this score although four points from 13% gammons brings white to Crawford game. Obviously, two stacks, big whole in homeboard, already made deep 2pt and midpoint still to clear represents big challenge for white. One reason for such score dependent cube decision is fact that two points brings white to always unpleasant 3 away but one point puts him at 4 away. This one point is less valuable.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,10% (G: 12,82% B: 0,73%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,90% (G: 3,40% B: 0,15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68,39% (G: 13,20% B: 0,83%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,61% (G: 3,46% B: 0,19%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,461
Double:	+0,924
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,677
Double/Take:	+0,578 (-0,099)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,323)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,008 (+0,669...+0,685)
Confidence Double:	± 0,011 (+0,566...+0,589)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 53 minutes 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross