doubling cube #006

is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 145

9 point match

pip: 147 score: 4 is Player 1

XGID=---a--ECC---eB---bbcb--B--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Da li je ovo take? 2 checkera iza 4 polja dugog primea gdje su blokirane 6, 5 i 4, te bolja kuća dovoljan su razlog da bijeli posumnja, što po Woolseyevu pravilu znači double. Izjednačena trka donosi take po PRaT kriteriju, gdje su pozicija i prijetnja (ako crni pobjegne sa zadnjim checkerom, a bijeli ga promaši onda je pass) na strani crnoga i daju mu double. Međutim, nodouble nije velika greška za money (0-0), samo 0.025 jer bijeli ima ankoru, sve checkere u igri, dobru ofenzivnu poziciju gdje, uz malo sreće crni može zaglaviti. 

Is this take? Two checkers behind four point prime with blocked 6s, 5s, 4s and better board are enough reasons for doubts which means double, according Woolsey doubling rules. From the other side, equal race gave him a take according PRAT criteria, where position and threat (if black escapes with back checker and white misses, he loses his market) are on black side and means double. Anyway, nodouble is only 0.025 error for money because of white's anchor and all checkers in play, good offense where black can get stuck if dice cooperate.

Money play rollout

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	72,12% (G: 12,99% B: 0,54%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,88% (G: 5,79% B: 0,17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72,21% (G: 13,70% B: 0,56%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,79% (G: 5,71% B: 0,17%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,518
Double:	+1,056
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,839 (-0,025)
Double/Take:	+0,864
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,136)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,010 (+0,830...+0,849)
Confidence Double:	± 0,012 (+0,852...+0,876)
Double Decision confidence:	99,9%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21 

Bijelome koji vodi 4-0/9 tj. 5a9a svejedno je u meču uzeo ili započeo novu igru. Crni je pogodio točno na granicu doubling windowa. Najefikasniji mogući double. Ako bijeli uzme, teško da će ikad vratiti kocku na 4 jer bi je crni pri ovakvom rezultatu okrenuo na 8 prvom prilikom. Mada ima solidnu igru ovdje, 4-0 i 13.6% gammona omogućuju bijelome pass.

White leads 4-0/9 and black is right on the upper border of doubling window. It is same to take or pass. Black sent the most efficient double. There is no recube vig here because black will redouble to 8 at first opportunity so white will almost never redouble in order to not compromises his lead. Although has solid game, white can start new one at this score.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	72,15% (G: 12,89% B: 0,52%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,85% (G: 5,93% B: 0,19%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72,38% (G: 13,63% B: 0,61%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,62% (G: 6,09% B: 0,26%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,511
Double:	+1,077
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,911 (-0,089)
Double/Take:	+1,000
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,000)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,007 (+0,904...+0,917)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,990...+1,010)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	52,1%
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross