doubling cube #008

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 103

9 point match

pip: 100 score: 6 is Player 1

XGID=----BDE-B---cB--ac-c-ba-b-:0:0:1:00:6:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Tipična greška iz meča u živo koja se ne bi dogodila da je meč igran online zbog mogućnosti uvida oba igrača u pip count. Ovako je bijeli pogrešno izbrojao da vodi dovoljno u trci. U biti mu je nedostajalo još barem 4 pipsa (ili nešto manje ako se napravi korekcija na broj crossovera 10:6, rupu na 5pt i dva checkera na 1pt) za double u money playu što odgovara rezultatu 0-0 u dovoljno dugom meču. Međutim protivnik neće napraviti grešku ako mu se ne pruži prilika. Ovdje je crni, ponovno zbog krivo izbrojanog stanja u trci dropnuo za 0.484 error za money.

Typical error from live play where players have no insight in pip count as they have during online match. White wrongly counted that has enough racing lead for money cube but he was short for at least 4 pips (or something less if we make adjustment for more black's crossovers, gap on 5pt and two checkers already on deep acept). However, your opponent will not err if he has no opportunity for that. In this position black, wrongly counted and pass for 0.484 error.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67,18% (G: 0,01% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,82% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67,20% (G: 0,01% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,80% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,344
Double:	+0,688
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,516
Double/Take:	+0,461 (-0,054)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,484)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,005 (+0,511...+0,520)
Confidence Double:	± 0,006 (+0,455...+0,467)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 8 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Ono što je zanimljivo ovdje i zbog čega je ova relativno jednostavna pozicija uopće uvrštena je razlika od 0.100 u double odluci kod 0-0 i kod rezultata 6-1/9, što pokazuje kako pri 3a8a treba biti konzervativan u duplanju čak i u pozicijama gdje nema gammona (čista trka).

What is interesting here and what is the main reason why this rather simple position is posted here at all is difference in doubling decision for money and at this score in match. That show us how one should be more conservative with cube at 3a8a even in positions without gammons.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67,19% (G: 0,01% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,81% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67,18% (G: 0,01% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,82% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,344
Double:	+0,728
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,435
Double/Take:	+0,278 (-0,157)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,565)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,005 (+0,430...+0,440)
Confidence Double:	± 0,004 (+0,274...+0,281)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 3 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross