doubling cube #005

is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 141

9 point match

pip: 131 score: 6 is Player 1

XGID=aa-B-BB-E---bC---d-cb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:6:4:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Obično prvo treba izvući stražnje checkere do 13.polja ili napraviti ankoru na 18. ili barem 20.polju koja će biti isturenija od protivnikove, kako bi se poslao inicijalni kjub. Bijeli vodi nešto u trci dok je crni na baru, ali sve ostalo je jednako ako ne i gore po bijelog. Zaostali checker, prekrcano 8.polje i nefleksibilna pozicija. Za razliku od crnog koji ima lagan take.

First you have to escape with back checkers to midpoint or make anchor on 18pt or at least 20pt which is more advanced then opponent's one to send initial cube. White is ahead in race while black is on the bar but everything else is equal if not even worse for white. Back checker still on 24pt and 8pt stack with no flexibility. On other side black has better distribution with spare on 6pt and smaller stack on 8pt so has easy take.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64,99% (G: 19,75% B: 0,76%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,01% (G: 8,57% B: 0,35%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65,30% (G: 19,92% B: 0,76%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,70% (G: 8,27% B: 0,32%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,416
Double:	+0,854
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,625
Double/Take:	+0,594 (-0,031)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,375)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,009 (+0,615...+0,634)
Confidence Double:	± 0,012 (+0,582...+0,606)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Kod 0-0 još nekako, double je 0.031 greška, ali pri 6-4/9 kada vodi i nedostaju mu 3 boda, bijeli  treba biti suzdržan ako ima imalo šansi za gammon, koji ga vodi na Crawfordovu igru. Ukoliko okrene kocku i dobije gammon, ima poen viška. Crni će biti sretan uzeti špekulativni kjub i vratiti ga 1. prilikom, a bijeli opet neće moći iskoristiti sva 4 boda.

For money double is 0.031 error but at this score when white is ahead and need 3 pts he has to be more conservative with cube and has to go for gammon which brings him to Crawford game. If he turns the cube and wins gammon, he has one point more than he needs. Black will be happy to take such speculative cube and send it back at his first opportunity while white will again has one spare point if get win in that case.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65,09% (G: 19,51% B: 1,65%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,91% (G: 8,35% B: 0,40%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65,28% (G: 19,86% B: 2,29%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,72% (G: 8,32% B: 0,68%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,482
Double:	+0,867
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,547
Double/Take:	+0,342 (-0,205)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,453)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,009 (+0,537...+0,556)
Confidence Double:	± 0,013 (+0,329...+0,355)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 56 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross