doubling cube #004

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 105

9 point match

pip: 107 score: 4 is Player 1

XGID=--bCBDBB---------bb-bcBca-:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Da li je ovo take? Sa dva checkera iza 5 polja duge blokade, otvorenim 6.poljem i bez viška checkera za igrati ukoliko ne baci trenutno šesticu, mnogi bi pasali kao crni. Što znači double.

Igrač koji odlučuje da li uzeti kocku treba izvlačiti jake strane pozicije. Bijeli ako ne baci 6 ili 3 uglavnom razbija blokadu. Osim toga 54 mu igra nezgodno, sve ostale 5 razbijaju 6.polje, 43 barpt, a da ne pričamo o 55 44 22. Čak i ako pobjegne s jednim checkerom bijeli može izgubiti. I za kraj crni uvijek ima posljednju šansu sa 23pt što uz izjednačenu trku daje take.

Is this take? With two checkers behind five points prime, open 6pt and without any checker to play with if not roll immediate six, many players will pass as black. Which means double.
Players who has take or pass decision has to seek for positive features of position. White breaks prime if doesn't roll six or three. 54 is uncomfortable roll for him, all 5s breaks 6pt, 43 breaks barpt. Also 55 44 22 doesn't play well. Even if he escapes with one back checker can lost this game. At last black always has 23pt anchor to play from there and hope for late shot. Everything mentioned with equal race gives him a take.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,57% (G: 15,94% B: 0,62%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,43% (G: 4,94% B: 0,13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69,09% (G: 16,54% B: 0,62%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30,91% (G: 4,81% B: 0,12%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,486
Double:	+1,008
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,726 (-0,058)
Double/Take:	+0,784
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,216)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,006 (+0,720...+0,733)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,774...+0,794)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 38 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21 

Pozicije u kojima ima gammona, ali koje mogu otići i na jednu i na drugu stranu obično nisu dobar izbor za duplanje onome koji vodi. Rezultat 5a8a preokreće solidan double za money u popriličnu grešku. Leaderi šalju kjub kod 5a8a normalno u trci i u holding gameu. Dakle u pozicijama gdje nema gammona i gdje protivnik nema efikasan redouble (već je to pass).

Positions with gammons which can goes on both sides usually are not good choices to be doubled as a leader. They can send cube normally at 5a8a in races or holding games. In positions where gammons are unlikely and where opponents doesn't have efficient redouble.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,57% (G: 15,95% B: 0,66%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,43% (G: 4,84% B: 0,15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69,04% (G: 16,40% B: 0,69%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30,96% (G: 4,83% B: 0,23%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,486
Double:	+0,983
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,655
Double/Take:	+0,577 (-0,078)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,345)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,007 (+0,648...+0,662)
Confidence Double:	± 0,011 (+0,566...+0,588)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 16 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross