doubling cube #002

is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 103

9 point match

pip: 116 score: 2 is Player 1

XGID=---aCCD--B--cB---a-bbAbbb-:0:0:1:00:2:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Crni vodi u trci, ali bijeli prijeti da će napraviti 3.polje i poslati ga na bar sa ukupno 17 bacanja. Četvrtica, koja mu ne igra s jedne strane udara crnog s druge. Izgleda kao praktični double ako ima nade da se protivnik prestraši svoja 2 blota i pasa. Ali da li je to baš tako? 

Damo li bijelome dobro bacanje, ali ne i najbolje, npr. 61 gdje će igrati 9/3* 4/3, a crnome loše, ali ne i najgore, npr. 14, koje odigra b/24 8/4 i ako tada crni ima take, nema razloga da uduplavamo sada. Protivnika treba staviti pred tešku odluku. Dati mu priliku da pogriješi. 

13 pipseva prednosti, 5:3 snažnija kuća daju crnome lagan take.

Black is ahead in race but white threats to make 3pt and send him on the bar with even 17 rolls. 4s, which doesn't play well on his side of the board, hits black on the other side. It seems like a practically double if there are any chance to scare your opponent, which has two blots around, and to drive him into pass. According Robertie's rule, if we give white good roll but not his best (61: 9/3* 4/4) and black bad roll but not his worst (14: b/24 8/4) and if black even then has a take, there is no reason to send cube now. We should put our opponent in front of difficult decision. Give him a chance for mistake. 13 pips advantage and 5:3 stronger board means easy take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	63,76% (G: 16,33% B: 0,37%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36,24% (G: 8,34% B: 0,17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64,08% (G: 18,16% B: 0,34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,92% (G: 8,31% B: 0,17%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,357
Double:	+0,764
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,505 (-0,019)
Double/Take:	+0,524
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,476)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,006 (+0,499...+0,511)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,514...+0,533)
Double Decision confidence:	99,9%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 50 minutes 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Gubeći 1-2/9 crni lakše uzima jer ima vrlo efikasan redouble. Sa gammonima završava meč. Stoga se bijelome koji vodi 2-1/9 bolje suzdržati od kjuba i pokušati unaprijediti svoju poziciju prije nego što okrene kocku. U ovom trenutku mu nedostaje -0.011.

At this score, black has easier take then for money because has very efficient redouble. With gammons at four cube he wins the match. So white has to retain from cube and try to improve his position a little bit before initial double. At this moment he need at least 0.011.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	63,71% (G: 16,22% B: 0,39%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36,29% (G: 8,36% B: 0,17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64,12% (G: 17,94% B: 0,39%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,88% (G: 8,16% B: 0,25%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,358
Double:	+0,774
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,484
Double/Take:	+0,473 (-0,011)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,516)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,006 (+0,478...+0,490)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,463...+0,483)
Double Decision confidence:	97,3%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 20 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross