Sunday, May 29, 2011

doubling cube #001

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
9 point match
pip: 169
score: 2

is Player 1
XGID=-aa---E-Ca--dD-A-c-cb--A-A:0:0:-1:00:2:0:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Trka je izjednačena, crni ima dvostruki šut, snažniju kuću, razdvojene stražnje checkere dok je bijeli bez ankore na baru. 66 33 64 rade 2.polje bijelome na glavi. U 2 kategorije (pozicija i prijetnja) crni prednjači što je dovoljno za double, dok izjednačena trka daje bijelome take. 
Blitz pozicije bez ankore i 1 checkerom na baru gdje protivnik ima šansu zatvoriti 3 polja su uglavnom take. Ako protivnik zatvara 4 polja onda je pass. 2 checkera na baru bez ankore  su pass kad protivnik zatvara 3 polja. Rana je faza igre, bijeli nije blokiran, ima sve checkere u igri, a zaostaje samo 2 pipsa efektivno u trci. 

Race is equal, black has double shot, stronger board, he already split his back checkers while white is on the bar without anchor. 66 33 64 makes 2pt on white's head. In two categories (position and threat) black is better which is enough for double but equal race means take.
Blitz positions without anchor and one checker on the bar when opponent has chance to make third inner point are usually take. If he threats to make fourth inner point they are pass. Two checkers on the bar without anchor is pass when opponent has threat to make third inner point. It is early in the game, white is'n blocked, has all checkers into play and only 2 pips deficit.

Money Play Rollout
Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances:67,21% (G: 24,49% B: 1,50%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:32,79% (G: 7,14% B: 0,34%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:67,21% (G: 26,04% B: 1,67%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:32,79% (G: 7,27% B: 0,39%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,529
Double:+1,089
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,807 (-0,025)
Double/Take:+0,832
Double/Drop:+1,000 (+0,168)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,013 (+0,794...+0,820)
Confidence Double: ± 0,015 (+0,817...+0,847)
Double Decision confidence: 99,4%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 5 hours 24 minutes
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Bijeli vodi 2-0/9 što mu daje za pravo da ranije pasava (greška 0.054) nego kod rezultata 0-0 ili za money (greška 0.168). Između ostaloga zato što ako prihvati i kasnije redupla na 4 neće optimalno iskoristiti svih 8 poena od gammona. 1 poen će biti viška. S druge strane crni koji zaostaje 0-2/9 šalje ranije kjub (nodouble greška 0.097) nego kod 0-0 (nodouble err 0.025).

White is ahead in match which gives him right for earlier pass (error 0.054) then for money (error 0.168). If he accepts and redoubles later, he can't use optimally all eight points if wins gammons. One point will be spare. From the other side black as a trailer has to send the cube earlier at this score (nodouble is 0.097 error) than for money (nodouble is 0.025 error).


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
  Player Winning Chances:67,03% (G: 24,34% B: 1,48%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:32,97% (G: 7,33% B: 0,49%)
Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances:67,04% (G: 26,36% B: 1,55%)
  Opponent Winning Chances:32,96% (G: 7,55% B: 0,60%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,514
Double:+1,121
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,849 (-0,097)
Double/Take:+0,946
Double/Drop:+1,000 (+0,054)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,011 (+0,838...+0,860)
Confidence Double: ± 0,015 (+0,931...+0,961)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 2 hours 16 minutes
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.