Dubrovnik Backgammon Open 2012

2012-02-24T01:26:00.003+01:00

U petak, subotu i nedjelju, 11, 12. i 13. svibnja 2012, u organizaciji Backgammon kluba Dubrovnik, u hotelu Petka, Obala Stjepana Radića 38, u Dubrovniku, održati će se 3. međunarodni backgammon turnir, Dubrovnik Backgammon Open 2012.

FORMAT

Igrati će se po međunarodnim turnirskim backgammon pravilima.

Glavni turnir će se igrati po švicarskom sistemu sa 7 mečeva do 9 poena. Prvog dana turnira igrat će se četiri meča, a drugog dana preostala tri. Koristit će se službeni program hrvatskog backgammon saveza za swiss turnire*.

Nakon večere u subotu, predviđen je Dubrovnik Masters, knockout turnir s mečevima do jedanaest poena.

*Parovi svakog kola određivat će se žrijebom (unutar skupine igrača s jednakim brojem pobjeda), a kriteriji za tie-break u slučaju jednakog broja pobjeda bit će redom: međusobni susret (vrijedi samo ako su svi igrači unutar skupine igrali međusobno ili ako je jedan igrač u skupini pobijedio sve ostale), median (modificirani), Buchholtz, kumulativni skor i kumulativni skor protivnika.

PROGRAM

petak 11. svibnja
------------------------------------------------
19:00 warm-up turnir - 7pts KO (100 kn)

subota 12. svibnja

------------------------------------------------

12:00 prijava sudionika

12:45 izvlačenje parova i otvaranje turnira

13:00 početak glavnog turnira - 9pts swiss (250 kn)

19:00 pauza za večeru

20:00 dubrovnik masters – 11pts KO turnir (100 €)

nedjelja 13. svibnja

------------------------------------------------

10:00 nastavak glavnog turnira

14:30 završetak glavnog turnira

14:35 proglašenje pobjednika

15:00 pauza za ručak
16:00 dubrovnik masters – polufinale i finale

NAGRADE

Kotizacija za glavni turnir je 250 kn, a registracija 50 kn*.

80% kotizacija isplatit će se kroz nagrade, na slijedeći način:

Igrači Mjesta plaćeno Raspodjela nagrada

25-32 4 1. 45% 2. 30% 3. 15% 4. 10%

33-40 5 1. 40% 2. 27% 3. 15% 4. 10% 5. 8%

41-48              6               1. 37% 2. 25% 3. 15% 4. 10% 5. 7.5% 6. 5.5%
49-56              7               1. 35% 2. 22.5% 3. 15% 4. 10% 5. 7.5% 6. 5.5% 7. 4.5%
57-64              8               1. 32.5%   2. 21% 3. 15% 4. 10% 5. 7.5% 6. 5.5% 7. 4.5% 8. 4%

Za glavni turnir je predviđen i side pool u visini od 100 kn.

*Registracije za Dubrovnik Open su oslobođeni igrači koji su uplatili godišnju registraciju za turnire hrvatske backgammon lige u iznosu od 100 kn.

SMJEŠTAJ

Cijene za sudionike turnira u hotelu Petka *** (+ taksa 1€ po osobi, dnevno):

za jednu osobu/dan (noćenje i doručak) u dvokrevetnoj sobi:     39€
za jednu osobu/dan (noćenje i doručak) u jednokrevetnoj sobi:    43€

Za goste hotela je osiguran besplatan parking.

KONTAKT

Rezervacije smještaja:

Služba prodaje hotela Petka (rok za rezervaciju* do 10.04.2012):

mail: info@hotelpetka

tel: +385 20 410 500 ; fax: +385 20 410 127

*Prilikom rezervacije obavezno spomenuti backgammon turnir kako bi ostvarili navedene cijene. Standardne hotelske cijene za taj period u godini su inače 22% veće.

Hotel Berkeley

Telephone: +385(0)20494160
Fax: +385(0)20494170
Emergency telephone number: +385(0)914191452

Hotel Ivka

Tel: +38520362600
Fax: +38520362660
e-mail: prodaja@hotel-ivka.com

e-mail: booking@hotel-ivka.com

Informacije:

Mislav Radica, mradica@gmail.com, +385 98 345 135

potpredsjednik Hrvatskog backgammon saveza i direktor turnira Dubrovnik Open 2012

doubling cube #39

2011-12-14T10:42:00.002+01:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 77

Money session

pip: 79
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-CBBBBB--a-Ab-----aa-bbbdA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64,51% (G: 33,72% B: 0,84%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,49% (G: 1,52% B: 0,02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64,57% (G: 33,63% B: 0,82%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,43% (G: 1,67% B: 0,02%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,620
Double:	+1,238

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,540 (-0,427)
Double/Take:	+0,967
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,033)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,007 (+0,533...+0,547)
Confidence Double:	± 0,012 (+0,955...+0,979)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 1 minute 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #38

2011-12-14T10:40:00.002+01:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 83

Money session

pip: 79
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-CBBBBB--a--c-----Ba-bbbd-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64,11% (G: 10,32% B: 0,09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,89% (G: 1,28% B: 0,02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64,27% (G: 10,69% B: 0,11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,73% (G: 1,24% B: 0,02%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,373
Double:	+0,762

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,427 (-0,060)
Double/Take:	+0,487
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,513)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,010 (+0,417...+0,437)
Confidence Double:	± 0,014 (+0,473...+0,500)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #37

2011-11-16T10:13:00.003+01:00

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 126

Money session

pip: 115
score: 5

is Player 1

XGID=----bCE-C-BabB---a-c-bbb--:0:0:1:00:5:2:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	70,82% (G: 4,20% B: 0,14%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29,18% (G: 2,49% B: 0,05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71,13% (G: 3,94% B: 0,13%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28,87% (G: 2,30% B: 0,06%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,434
Double:	+0,879

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,718
Double/Take:	+0,701 (-0,017)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,282)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,008 (+0,710...+0,726)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,692...+0,711)

Double Decision confidence:	99,6%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 43 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #36

2011-11-16T10:13:00.001+01:00

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 151

Money session

pip: 134
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=a-AaBBBAC--Ad---Ab-eA-b-A-:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	73,28% (G: 40,87% B: 1,05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26,72% (G: 6,59% B: 0,48%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	73,11% (G: 43,27% B: 0,93%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	26,89% (G: 6,84% B: 0,59%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,814
Double:	+1,660

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,976 (-0,024)
Double/Take:	+1,452 (+0,452)
Double/Drop:	+1,000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,009 (+0,967...+0,984)
Confidence Double:	± 0,014 (+1,438...+1,465)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 50 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #35

2011-11-11T13:37:00.000+01:00

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 126

Money session

pip: 153
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=a--BBaD--A-AcB---b-b-bBbbA:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64,51% (G: 37,29% B: 1,46%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,49% (G: 9,96% B: 0,48%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65,20% (G: 39,04% B: 1,10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,80% (G: 9,82% B: 0,51%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,573
Double:	+1,204

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,723 (-0,192)
Double/Take:	+0,914
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,086)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,014 (+0,708...+0,737)
Confidence Double:	± 0,021 (+0,893...+0,936)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 27 minutes 28 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #34

2011-11-11T13:01:00.001+01:00

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 126

Money session

pip: 140
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=a--BBaD-A--AcC---b-b-bBbb-:0:0:1:00:2:3:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65,62% (G: 31,87% B: 1,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,38% (G: 10,73% B: 0,43%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66,69% (G: 34,19% B: 0,91%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33,31% (G: 10,90% B: 0,46%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,530
Double:	+1,142

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,682 (-0,200)
Double/Take:	+0,882
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,118)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,016 (+0,666...+0,698)
Confidence Double:	± 0,027 (+0,855...+0,910)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 9 minutes 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #33

2011-10-27T10:58:00.000+02:00

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 150

Money session

pip: 170
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=--a--bE-B--BbC-aAbad--Ab-A:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64,62% (G: 35,42% B: 2,23%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,38% (G: 7,29% B: 0,36%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65,04% (G: 36,20% B: 1,96%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,96% (G: 7,24% B: 0,35%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,592
Double:	+1,213

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,746 (-0,170)
Double/Take:	+0,916
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,084)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,010 (+0,737...+0,756)
Confidence Double:	± 0,016 (+0,901...+0,932)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #32

2011-10-24T15:03:00.001+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148

Money session

pip: 146
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-b--aBD-CA--bC-Aab-c-b--bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	60,68% (G: 38,63% B: 1,77%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,32% (G: 11,84% B: 0,90%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61,15% (G: 39,93% B: 1,34%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38,85% (G: 11,89% B: 0,99%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,490
Double:	+1,014

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,609 (-0,081)
Double/Take:	+0,690
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,310)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,018 (+0,591...+0,627)
Confidence Double:	± 0,029 (+0,661...+0,719)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 13 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #31

2011-10-24T11:25:00.001+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141

Money session

pip: 131
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-bB---ED-A---Ab--ccc-b-AA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	71,47% (G: 27,25% B: 2,40%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28,53% (G: 8,23% B: 0,43%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72,10% (G: 28,08% B: 2,56%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,90% (G: 7,91% B: 0,44%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,639
Double:	+1,330

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,860 (-0,140)
Double/Take:	+1,117 (+0,117)
Double/Drop:	+1,000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,017 (+0,843...+0,876)
Confidence Double:	± 0,028 (+1,090...+1,145)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 12 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #030

2011-10-23T16:41:00.003+02:00

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 155

Unlimited Game

pip: 141
score: 4

is Player 1

XGID=aaB--BD-B---cC---bce----B-:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64,45% (G:30,95% B:0,85%)	64,76% (G:31,79% B:0,85%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,55% (G:8,32% B:0,44%)	35,24% (G:8,48% B:0,48%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,520	+1,064
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,707 (-0,081)	±0,012 (+0,695..+0,718)
Double/Take:	+0,788	±0,016 (+0,771..+0,804)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,212)

Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 23 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

doubling cube #29

2011-10-07T11:47:00.001+02:00

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 162

Money session

pip: 171
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=-b----E-C--adD---Abdb--A-A:0:0:-1:00:2:3:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67,12% (G: 29,53% B: 1,84%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,88% (G: 7,31% B: 0,36%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67,23% (G: 30,70% B: 1,81%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,77% (G: 7,46% B: 0,39%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,579
Double:	+1,182

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,811 (-0,093)
Double/Take:	+0,904
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,096)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,012 (+0,800...+0,823)
Confidence Double:	± 0,017 (+0,887...+0,921)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #28

2011-10-07T11:45:00.001+02:00

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 113

Money session

pip: 139
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=--BBaCBA-a--bB---a-bdbB-bA:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,84% (G: 28,20% B: 0,96%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,16% (G: 7,17% B: 0,30%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68,94% (G: 29,40% B: 0,77%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,06% (G: 7,15% B: 0,30%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,594
Double:	+1,212

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,780 (-0,168)
Double/Take:	+0,948
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,052)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,007 (+0,773...+0,786)
Confidence Double:	± 0,013 (+0,935...+0,960)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 36 minutes 35 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #26

2011-10-07T11:39:00.001+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148

Money session

pip: 154
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=b--ABBBbB----C---b-dbcC---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	59,64% (G: 27,56% B: 1,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	40,36% (G: 13,15% B: 0,57%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60,23% (G: 28,69% B: 0,90%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,77% (G: 13,12% B: 0,57%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,341
Double:	+0,727

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,519
Double/Take:	+0,399 (-0,120)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,481)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,018 (+0,502...+0,537)
Confidence Double:	± 0,024 (+0,375...+0,423)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 31 minutes 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #025

2011-10-04T18:27:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 174

Unlimited Game

pip: 138
score: 4

is Player 1

XGID=-bb--BDBB-A-cC----acb-b--A:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70,20% (G:27,60% B:2,38%)	69,97% (G:27,82% B:2,58%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29,80% (G:6,70% B:0,25%)	30,03% (G:6,87% B:0,26%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,634	+1,264
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,898 (-0,102)	±0,011 (+0,887..+0,910)
Double/Take:	+1,024 (+0,024)	±0,016 (+1,008..+1,040)
Double/Pass:	+1,000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		99,8%
Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

doubling cube #024

2011-10-04T18:13:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 162

Unlimited Game

pip: 155
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=a-aB-BD----AdC---d-e-B-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65,70% (G:28,71% B:0,93%)	65,53% (G:30,36% B:0,93%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,30% (G:6,94% B:0,27%)	34,47% (G:7,32% B:0,32%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,538	+1,094
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,755 (-0,068)	±0,009 (+0,746..+0,764)
Double/Take:	+0,823	±0,012 (+0,811..+0,835)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,177)

Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

doubling cube #23

2011-10-03T10:36:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 121

Money session

pip: 140
score: 4

is Player 1

XGID=-b-BBBB-A--B-Ba--b-bdbb-B-:0:0:1:00:4:5:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	63,41% (G: 18,28% B: 1,03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36,59% (G: 13,11% B: 1,06%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	63,61% (G: 18,58% B: 1,09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36,39% (G: 12,95% B: 1,04%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,320
Double:	+0,658

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,469
Double/Take:	+0,422 (-0,047)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,531)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,016 (+0,453...+0,484)
Confidence Double:	± 0,022 (+0,400...+0,444)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 18 minutes 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #22

2011-10-03T10:27:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 135

Money session

pip: 165
score: 4

is Player 1

XGID=--A-a-EbB---aC--abCdb-b-A-:0:0:-1:00:4:4:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67,84% (G: 25,02% B: 0,66%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,16% (G: 5,89% B: 0,23%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68,23% (G: 25,82% B: 0,61%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,77% (G: 6,00% B: 0,27%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,552
Double:	+1,132

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,825 (-0,059)
Double/Take:	+0,884
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,116)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,017 (+0,809...+0,842)
Confidence Double:	± 0,020 (+0,864...+0,904)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 43 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #21

2011-10-03T09:53:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141

Money session

pip: 136
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=--a--BDBBA--cC--bd-da---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,06% (G: 22,09% B: 0,65%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,94% (G: 6,30% B: 0,25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68,50% (G: 22,45% B: 0,67%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,50% (G: 6,24% B: 0,25%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,523
Double:	+1,073

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,736 (-0,087)
Double/Take:	+0,823
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,177)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,014 (+0,723...+0,750)
Confidence Double:	± 0,018 (+0,805...+0,842)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 39 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #20

2011-09-29T14:36:00.001+02:00

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 134

Money session

pip: 113
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=-a--BBCDBA--b-aaac-bbb--A-:0:0:1:00:2:4:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	55,61% (G: 27,45% B: 1,09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44,39% (G: 8,94% B: 0,43%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56,49% (G: 26,40% B: 1,09%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,51% (G: 8,91% B: 0,41%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,304
Double:	+0,623

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,335
Double/Take:	+0,283 (-0,052)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,665)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,014 (+0,321...+0,348)
Confidence Double:	± 0,021 (+0,262...+0,304)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 23 minutes 13 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #19

2011-09-29T14:34:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 118

Money session

pip: 99
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=-AAaaBE-BCa--Aa-a--bbbbb--:0:0:1:00:2:2:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	66,97% (G: 8,88% B: 0,22%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33,03% (G: 4,91% B: 0,12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67,54% (G: 9,77% B: 0,21%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,46% (G: 5,05% B: 0,12%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,380
Double:	+0,798

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,672
Double/Take:	+0,641 (-0,031)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,328)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,008 (+0,664...+0,680)
Confidence Double:	± 0,011 (+0,630...+0,653)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 12 minutes 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #18

2011-09-27T10:41:00.001+02:00

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 118

Money session

pip: 121
score: 1

is Player 1

XGID=-a--BBDaC---bC--Ab-bbb-ab-:0:0:1:00:1:4:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	70,69% (G: 19,15% B: 0,83%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29,31% (G: 6,33% B: 0,16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70,79% (G: 21,81% B: 0,92%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29,21% (G: 7,57% B: 0,19%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,549
Double:	+1,131

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,744 (-0,173)
Double/Take:	+0,917
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,083)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,008 (+0,736...+0,752)
Confidence Double:	± 0,015 (+0,902...+0,932)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 16 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #17

2011-09-27T10:35:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 101

Money session

pip: 154
score: 1

is Player 1

XGID=--B-B-BAB--B-c-b-c-bC-b-cA:0:0:-1:00:1:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	74,35% (G: 21,40% B: 0,22%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25,65% (G: 4,36% B: 0,18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75,86% (G: 21,88% B: 0,20%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24,14% (G: 4,20% B: 0,15%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,658
Double:	+1,389

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,942 (-0,058)
Double/Take:	+1,207 (+0,207)
Double/Drop:	+1,000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,009 (+0,934...+0,951)
Confidence Double:	± 0,015 (+1,192...+1,221)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 28 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #16

2011-09-27T10:32:00.000+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120

Money session

pip: 135
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-a-a-BDBB---bC--Ba-bbcaaa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	69,55% (G: 20,94% B: 1,66%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30,45% (G: 8,69% B: 0,18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69,90% (G: 21,31% B: 1,85%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30,10% (G: 8,72% B: 0,18%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,528
Double:	+1,081

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,788 (-0,096)
Double/Take:	+0,883
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,117)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,014 (+0,774...+0,801)
Confidence Double:	± 0,018 (+0,866...+0,901)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 26 minutes 07 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #015

2011-09-25T22:15:00.000+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153

Unlimited Game

pip: 113
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=---aBBCB----dB--Ba-bAbbbaA:0:0:-1:00:0:2:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56,79% (G:34,64% B:0,37%)	56,41% (G:34,24% B:0,39%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,21% (G:12,95% B:0,70%)	43,59% (G:13,22% B:0,69%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,349	+0,671
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,395	±0,012 (+0,383..+0,406)
Double/Take:	+0,309 (-0,085)	±0,023 (+0,286..+0,332)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,605)

Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11,0%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 18 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

doubling cube #014

2011-09-25T20:35:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 95

Unlimited Game

pip: 108
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=-a-BBCBBB----A---abccbbaA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68,77% (G:20,04% B:0,89%)	69,05% (G:20,22% B:0,89%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,23% (G:5,02% B:0,20%)	30,95% (G:4,99% B:0,20%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,532	+1,080
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0,728 (-0,154)	±0,009 (+0,719..+0,736)
Redouble/Take:	+0,882	±0,017 (+0,865..+0,899)
Redouble/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,118)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 10 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

doubling cube #013

2011-09-23T14:01:00.004+02:00

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 109

Money session

pip: 144
score: 2

is Player 1

XGID=----BBBBBaAA--aA-cdd--b-B-:0:0:-1:00:2:2:0:0:10

on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	70,32% (G: 18,03% B: 1,48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29,68% (G: 3,42% B: 0,12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70,37% (G: 19,17% B: 1,73%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29,63% (G: 3,37% B: 0,13%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,566
Double:	+1,162

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,872 (-0,057)
Double/Take:	+0,930
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,070)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,007 (+0,865...+0,880)
Confidence Double:	± 0,012 (+0,918...+0,941)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 48 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

doubling cube #012

2011-06-18T07:00:00.009+02:00

is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 155

9 point match

pip: 161
score: 7

is Player 1

XGID=-a-a--EAC---eD---b-c-b-aB-:0:0:-1:00:7:6:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Za money play ovo je teški nodouble i sumnjam da bi se našao neki igrač koji bi napravio pass. Crni je samo 2 pipsa efektivno u prednosti, ima 2 checkera pozadi, doduše razdvojena koja prijete blotu bijeloga. Međutim, crni također ima blot u svojoj kući dok bijeli ima ankoru. Previše je igre ovdje ostalo i ne znam nakon koje sekvence bi crni izgubio svoj market. Možda nakon 64 gdje bi hitnuo bijelog i pokrio 2.polje, nakon čega bi bijeli ostao na baru. Vjerojatno i nakon toga bijeli ima take. Ali kao što kaže Woolsey treba protivniku pružiti priliku za grešku.

For money this is clear nodouble and I doubt there will be any player who will pass here. Black is only 2 pips ahead in race, has 2 checkers back and blot in his homeboard. His back checkers are split and he has double shot on white's outfield blot but white has anchor and there are no much sequences after which he could lose his market. Maybe after hit+cover and dance for white. Even then white can take possibly. But as Woolsey said: "You never know."

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	56,51% (G: 18,35% B: 1,24%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,49% (G: 11,36% B: 0,55%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56,70% (G: 18,42% B: 1,27%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,30% (G: 11,21% B: 0,54%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,207
Double:	+0,427

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,305
Double/Take:	+0,073 (-0,231)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,695)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,012 (+0,293...+0,317)
Confidence Double:	± 0,017 (+0,056...+0,090)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 5 hours 01 minute

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

3a2a je specifičan skor. Onaj koji vodi može pasati lako gammonish pozicije, no može uzimati čak i dublje one u kojima nema gammona, poput holding game i trke jer mu pobjeda u igri znači meč. Osim toga gammoni mu sa kockom na 2 ionako ne igraju, a kako ih nema izostaje i efekt killanja istih. Ovdje crni ima samo 18% gammona i za 0.023 je kratak za double. Ako izmjenimo poziciju da checker sa 6.polja zatvori 2.polje onda dobivamo double/take.

3a2a is very specific score. Leader can pass very early in gammonish positions but take deeper in non gammonis ones like holding games or racing games because game win means match win for him. In addition, gammons means nothing for him with cube on two and there is no negative effect of killing gammons in such non-gammonish positions. Here black has only 18% G's and need 0.023 more to justify double even at this score. If we slightly change position and cover 2pt with spare from 6pt then we get double/take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	56,83% (G: 18,47% B: 3,95%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,17% (G: 13,12% B: 1,54%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	56,59% (G: 18,51% B: 5,22%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	43,41% (G: 13,73% B: 1,61%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,238
Double:	+0,545

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,568
Double/Take:	+0,545 (-0,023)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,432)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,012 (+0,556...+0,581)
Confidence Double:	± 0,013 (+0,532...+0,558)

Double Decision confidence:	99,3%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 2 hours 38 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

doubling cube #011

2011-06-17T07:00:00.051+02:00

is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 113

9 point match

pip: 92
score: 7

is Player 1

XGID=-a-BCDBB----b-Ba---cdca---:0:0:1:00:7:2:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Baš kao što je to Kit Woolsey objasnio u svome komentaru u poziciji #009, nikad se ne zna što će protivnik napraviti. Ovdje sam se mislio da li poslati kjub ili keširati budući nema puno gammona, svega 17%, pa stoga nema puno razloga za nastaviti igru mada crni ne može preokrenuti u jednom bacanju da ima take, osim možda nakon 21 bijelog i 61 crnog kojim preskače blokadu. 21 pips prednosti, jedan checker iza 5 polja duge blokade s time da nije na početku primea, pa ga ne može preskočiti svakom 6 osim sa 61. Čisti pass za money.

Kit Woolsey said in his OLM comment which you can find in #009, "You never know when your opponent can make blunder and take clear pass." Here I was thinking OtB should I cash or play on for gammon. Although there are only 17% G's here there is no sequence, maybe except 21 for white and escaping 61 for black, after which black can take the cube. 21 pips racing advantage, one checker back behind five point prime with blocked sixes. Clear pass for money.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	84,88% (G: 16,93% B: 0,32%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	15,12% (G: 2,24% B: 0,10%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	85,66% (G: 16,75% B: 0,35%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	14,34% (G: 1,86% B: 0,08%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,847
Double:	+1,730

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,978 (-0,022)
Double/Take:	+1,627 (+0,627)
Double/Drop:	+1,000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout details
4537 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,003 (+0,974...+0,981)
Confidence Double:	± 0,008 (+1,619...+1,635)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 34 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

2a7a znače automatic redouble crnom jer u slučaju da izgubi igru gubi cijeli meč. Međutim 15% šansi za pobjedu nije dovoljno u ovakvoj poziciji praktički bez gammona za crnog. Zanimljivo je da bijeli na ovom rezultati tehnički može nastaviti igrati na gammon. Za to ima 16% šansi, ali time ne pruža priliku crnome da uzme i pogriješi. To se u meču i dogodilo.

At 2a 7a black has automatic redouble but 15% game winning chances is not enough for take. There are practicaly no gammons for him. It is interesting how white at this score can play on for gammon. He has 16% chances and double is slightly error 0.013. But you never know when your opponent can blunder and take clear pass. It happened in this match, 0.508 error.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	85,51% (G: 16,29% B: 0,67%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	14,49% (G: 1,98% B: 0,09%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	85,98% (G: 15,70% B: 0,48%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	14,02% (G: 1,40% B: 0,08%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,968
Double:	+2,009

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+1,013
Double/Take:	+1,521 (+0,508)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (-0,013)

Best Cube action: Too Good to Double / Drop

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,005 (+1,008...+1,018)
Confidence Double:	± 0,012 (+1,509...+1,533)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 20 minutes 43 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

doubling cube #010

2011-06-16T00:03:00.006+02:00

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 152

9 point match

pip: 152
score: 7

is Player 1

XGID=-a---aEBC-A-dB---c-d-b--B-:0:0:-1:00:7:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Kod 0-0 ili za money play crni je kratak za inicijalni kjub za čak 0.146. Ima bolji board, razdvojene stražnje checkere i direktan šut na protivnikov blot, ali 4 pipsa efektivno zaostaje u trci. Bijeli ima vrlo lagani take. Ne znam tko bi ovo pasao. Protivnika treba staviti pred težu odluku i pružiti mu priliku da pogriješi. Ukoliko crni ne pogodi bijelog, a ne napravi ankoru na 20.polju, može se naći u nevolji jer bijeli sa 11 checkera u zoni može napasti, ali i ojačati blokadu. Za početni double crni je trebao barem napraviti ankoru na 20.polju.

For money black is short to initial double by 0.146. He has stronger board, already split back checkers and has direct shot on opponent's blot but four pips is effectively behind. White has very easy take. I have no idea who could pass this one. We should put our opponent under more pressure to make harder decision where he can make error. If black doesn't shot white and fails to anchor, he could find himself in trouble because white with 11 checkers into zone could attack or extent his prime. For initial double black has to make at least golden point.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	60,29% (G: 19,10% B: 1,19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,71% (G: 10,04% B: 0,43%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60,37% (G: 19,49% B: 1,19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,63% (G: 9,93% B: 0,44%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,304
Double:	+0,621

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,451
Double/Take:	+0,305 (-0,146)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,549)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,013 (+0,439...+0,464)
Confidence Double:	± 0,015 (+0,290...+0,320)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 3 hours 58 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Kod 8a2a drugačija je priča. Crni može iskoristiti sva 4 boda od gammona dok bijeli sjedi na mrtvoj kocki, nikad neće reduplati, pa će se trebati igrati do kraja. Otpadaju one pobjede bijelog koje bi pri nekom drugom rezultatu dobio sa redouble/pass. Isto tako 10% gammona ne znače ništa više od običnih pobjeda. Zbog toga crni ranije može poslati kjub jer bijeli ranije i passava. Međutim, s ankorom, ovdje ima samo 18% gammona dok 2 boda vode bijeloga u 40% slučajeva do pobjede u meču. Dovoljno za take.

At 8a2a black can be more aggressive with cube because he can uses all four points from gammons and white will seat on dead cube and will never redouble so this game will be played until the end. There will be no wins with redouble/pass for white in this case. Also 10% of gammons are killed with this cube. It is the reason why black can sends cube more earlier. But with anchor there is only 18% gammons here while two points leads white in 40% games to match win so he has clear take.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	60,35% (G: 18,62% B: 1,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,65% (G: 11,46% B: 1,45%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60,76% (G: 18,91% B: 1,03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,24% (G: 12,20% B: 1,34%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,226
Double:	+0,793

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,742 (-0,051)
Double/Take:	+0,793
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,207)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,009 (+0,733...+0,751)
Confidence Double:	± 0,011 (+0,782...+0,804)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

doubling cube #009, from gammonu.com OLM, commented by Kit Woolsey

2011-06-15T19:25:00.017+02:00

is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 149

11 point match

pip: 157
score: 1

is Player 1

XGID=--B-abD-B---bE-a-b-cbb-A-A:0:0:-1:00:1:5:0:11:10

on roll, cube action?

Je li ovo take? Vodim na svim područjima, a bijeli je na baru. Pa ipak, trka je gotovo izjednačena. Imam 3 checkera pozadi i ne izgleda kako mogu uspješto napasti. Uz to vodim u meču. Ovo meni ne izgleda kao take. Ali trebam razmisliti o tome. To je sve što trebam znati. Ako postoji i najmanja sumnja da li je ovo take ili ne, onda mora biti double.

Moguće je da treba nastaviti igrati na gammon. Ne može se puno toga dogoditi u jednom bacanju što može iznenada vratiti bijelog u igru. Ali čak iako je moja pozicija zaista dovoljno jaka da zavređuje igranje na gammon, u praksi je ispravno uduplati. Mora postojati barem neka šansa da bijeli prihvati. Gotovo trećina čitatelja glasali su za take što opravdava double iako je možda teoretski zamalo pogrešno.

Is it a take? I am leading in all departments, and White is on the bar. Still, the race is close, I have 3 men back, and I don't figure to carry out a blitz. In addition, I'm well ahead in the match. It doesn't look like a take to me. But I had to think about it. That's all I need to know. If there is even the slightest doubt about whether or not this is a take, it is a must double.

It is possible that I am worth a playon. Not much can happen which can snap White back into the game in one roll. But even if my position really is strong enough to justify playing on, as a practical matter it has to be right to double. There must be some chance that White will take. The actual vote which had almost 1/3 of the readers taking justifies doubling even if theoretically slightly incorrect.

Lako je reći: Moj protivnik neće uzeti kocku, pa ću zato igrati na gammon. Nikad se ne zna. Prije nekoliko godina igrao sam u finalu velikog turnira protiv vrhunskog igrača. Relativno rano u meču bacio sam jokera i odjednom imao vrlo jaku poziciju, koja mi je izgledala kao prilično očit pass. Razmislio sam nekoliko trenutaka da li nastaviti igrati na gammon, ali sam konačno odlučio da nemam dovoljno i uduplao sam. Naknadna analiza kompjuterom je pokazala kako je teoretski bilo ispravno igrati na gammon. Kakogod, uduplavanje se pokazalo kao odličan potez jer je moj protivnik napravio veliku grešku i uzeo! Dobio sam gammon i 4 boda umjesto 2 koja bi dobio da nisam uduplao. Nikad se ne zna.

It is easy to say: My opponent won't take, so let's play on. You never know. A few years ago I was playing in the finals of a major tournament against a top player. Relatively early in the match I rolled a joker and suddenly had a very strong position, one that looked to me like a pretty obvious pass. I gave some thought to playing on for a gammon, but finally decided I didn't quite have it so I doubled. Later bot rollout showed that I did, in fact, have a theoretical playon. However, doubling turned out to be the big winner, as my opponent blundered and took! I did win a gammon, getting 4 points instead of the 2 points I would have gotten had I not doubled. You never know.

Bijeli zaista nema ništa. Crni ima mnogo snažniju ofenzivu zajedno sa defenzivnim 5. poljem u slučaju da stvari krenu na gore. Bijeli će imati vrlo snažan redouble ako preokrene igru, ali za okrenuti ovu igru trebati će mu dosta. Ovo izgleda kao prilično solidan pass.

White really has nothing. Black has the much stronger offense along with the defensive five point in case things start to go badly. White would have great recube leverage if he can turn the game around, but turning this game around will take a lot. It looks like a pretty solid pass.

Source gammonu.com. Published with Kit Woolsey kindly permission.

doubling cube #008

2011-06-12T03:27:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 103

9 point match

pip: 100
score: 6

is Player 1

XGID=----BDE-B---cB--ac-c-ba-b-:0:0:1:00:6:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Tipična greška iz meča u živo koja se ne bi dogodila da je meč igran online zbog mogućnosti uvida oba igrača u pip count. Ovako je bijeli pogrešno izbrojao da vodi dovoljno u trci. U biti mu je nedostajalo još barem 4 pipsa (ili nešto manje ako se napravi korekcija na broj crossovera 10:6, rupu na 5pt i dva checkera na 1pt) za double u money playu što odgovara rezultatu 0-0 u dovoljno dugom meču. Međutim protivnik neće napraviti grešku ako mu se ne pruži prilika. Ovdje je crni, ponovno zbog krivo izbrojanog stanja u trci dropnuo za 0.484 error za money.

Typical error from live play where players have no insight in pip count as they have during online match. White wrongly counted that has enough racing lead for money cube but he was short for at least 4 pips (or something less if we make adjustment for more black's crossovers, gap on 5pt and two checkers already on deep acept). However, your opponent will not err if he has no opportunity for that. In this position black, wrongly counted and pass for 0.484 error.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67,18% (G: 0,01% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,82% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67,20% (G: 0,01% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,80% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,344
Double:	+0,688

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,516
Double/Take:	+0,461 (-0,054)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,484)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,005 (+0,511...+0,520)
Confidence Double:	± 0,006 (+0,455...+0,467)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 8 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Ono što je zanimljivo ovdje i zbog čega je ova relativno jednostavna pozicija uopće uvrštena je razlika od 0.100 u double odluci kod 0-0 i kod rezultata 6-1/9, što pokazuje kako pri 3a8a treba biti konzervativan u duplanju čak i u pozicijama gdje nema gammona (čista trka).

What is interesting here and what is the main reason why this rather simple position is posted here at all is difference in doubling decision for money and at this score in match. That show us how one should be more conservative with cube at 3a8a even in positions without gammons.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67,19% (G: 0,01% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,81% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67,18% (G: 0,01% B: 0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,82% (G: 0,00% B: 0,00%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,344
Double:	+0,728

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,435
Double/Take:	+0,278 (-0,157)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,565)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,005 (+0,430...+0,440)
Confidence Double:	± 0,004 (+0,274...+0,281)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 3 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

doubling cube #007

2011-06-10T01:20:00.005+02:00

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 146

9 point match

pip: 102
score: 4

is Player 1

XGID=-bB--BE-D---bB-aababbb----:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Da li je ovo take? Sudeći po trci i dva zaostala crna checkera našlo bi se igrača koji bi pasali kod 0-0 što čini ovo praktički korektnim kjubom. Međutim, zašto je ovo tehnički lagan take kako rollout kaže? Struktura bijelog nije fleksibilna što može uskoro uzrokovati ostavljanje šuteva. Premjestimo li dva checkera sa 6pt na 3pt, crni ima pass. Ofenzivna pozicija crnog je odlična i eventualni hit znači pobjedu. Crni ima i timing za acepoint anchor game, a bijeli će mu gotovo sigurno ponuditi uskoro i pokoji indirekt. Malo gammona olakšava uzimanje kocke.

Is this take? According race and two black's back checkers which are still on 24pt, there will be surely some players who would pass this one, which makes such cube practically correct. Why this position is such easy technical take as rollout stated? Well, white's front structure doesn't flexible. Those stack are blots reservoirs. If we put two checkers from 6pt to 4pt then black will has pass. Black's offensive position is strong and he has timing to preserve his board and play acept game. Also, white will leave some indirects in most cases.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67,76% (G: 12,77% B: 0,64%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32,24% (G: 3,38% B: 0,12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68,22% (G: 12,61% B: 0,57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,78% (G: 3,19% B: 0,13%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,454
Double:	+0,926

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,725
Double/Take:	+0,706 (-0,020)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,275)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,008 (+0,718...+0,733)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,696...+0,715)

Double Decision confidence:	99,9%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Greška od 0.020 za money game se pretvara u blunder 0.099 pri 5a8a iako 4 boda u gotovo 13% gammona od ukupno ~68% pobjeda vode bijeloga na Crawford game. Očito su dva stacka, otvoreno 3. i 4.polje, te zatvoreno duboko 2.polje, preveliki nedostatak u strukturi. Jedan od razloga je svakako činjenica da dva boda vode bijelog na uvijek nezgodnih 3 boda do pobjede, dok 1 bod ide na zahvalnih 4 do pobjede. Ispada kako ovaj bod nije dovoljno vrijedan.

0.020 error for money becomes ~0.100 blunder at this score although four points from 13% gammons brings white to Crawford game. Obviously, two stacks, big whole in homeboard, already made deep 2pt and midpoint still to clear represents big challenge for white. One reason for such score dependent cube decision is fact that two points brings white to always unpleasant 3 away but one point puts him at 4 away. This one point is less valuable.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,10% (G: 12,82% B: 0,73%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,90% (G: 3,40% B: 0,15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68,39% (G: 13,20% B: 0,83%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,61% (G: 3,46% B: 0,19%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,461
Double:	+0,924

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,677
Double/Take:	+0,578 (-0,099)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,323)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,008 (+0,669...+0,685)
Confidence Double:	± 0,011 (+0,566...+0,589)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 53 minutes 48 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

doubling cube #006

2011-06-08T02:54:00.002+02:00

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 145

9 point match

pip: 147
score: 4

is Player 1

XGID=---a--ECC---eB---bbcb--B--:0:0:-1:00:4:0:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Da li je ovo take? 2 checkera iza 4 polja dugog primea gdje su blokirane 6, 5 i 4, te bolja kuća dovoljan su razlog da bijeli posumnja, što po Woolseyevu pravilu znači double. Izjednačena trka donosi take po PRaT kriteriju, gdje su pozicija i prijetnja (ako crni pobjegne sa zadnjim checkerom, a bijeli ga promaši onda je pass) na strani crnoga i daju mu double. Međutim, nodouble nije velika greška za money (0-0), samo 0.025 jer bijeli ima ankoru, sve checkere u igri, dobru ofenzivnu poziciju gdje, uz malo sreće crni može zaglaviti.

Is this take? Two checkers behind four point prime with blocked 6s, 5s, 4s and better board are enough reasons for doubts which means double, according Woolsey doubling rules. From the other side, equal race gave him a take according PRAT criteria, where position and threat (if black escapes with back checker and white misses, he loses his market) are on black side and means double. Anyway, nodouble is only 0.025 error for money because of white's anchor and all checkers in play, good offense where black can get stuck if dice cooperate.

Money play rollout

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	72,12% (G: 12,99% B: 0,54%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,88% (G: 5,79% B: 0,17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72,21% (G: 13,70% B: 0,56%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,79% (G: 5,71% B: 0,17%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,518
Double:	+1,056

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,839 (-0,025)
Double/Take:	+0,864
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,136)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,010 (+0,830...+0,849)
Confidence Double:	± 0,012 (+0,852...+0,876)

Double Decision confidence:	99,9%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Bijelome koji vodi 4-0/9 tj. 5a9a svejedno je u meču uzeo ili započeo novu igru. Crni je pogodio točno na granicu doubling windowa. Najefikasniji mogući double. Ako bijeli uzme, teško da će ikad vratiti kocku na 4 jer bi je crni pri ovakvom rezultatu okrenuo na 8 prvom prilikom. Mada ima solidnu igru ovdje, 4-0 i 13.6% gammona omogućuju bijelome pass.

White leads 4-0/9 and black is right on the upper border of doubling window. It is same to take or pass. Black sent the most efficient double. There is no recube vig here because black will redouble to 8 at first opportunity so white will almost never redouble in order to not compromises his lead. Although has solid game, white can start new one at this score.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	72,15% (G: 12,89% B: 0,52%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,85% (G: 5,93% B: 0,19%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72,38% (G: 13,63% B: 0,61%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27,62% (G: 6,09% B: 0,26%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,511
Double:	+1,077

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,911 (-0,089)
Double/Take:	+1,000
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,000)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,007 (+0,904...+0,917)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,990...+1,010)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	52,1%

Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

doubling cube #005

2011-05-29T03:11:00.016+02:00

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 141

9 point match

pip: 131
score: 6

is Player 1

XGID=aa-B-BB-E---bC---d-cb-b-A-:0:0:1:00:6:4:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Obično prvo treba izvući stražnje checkere do 13.polja ili napraviti ankoru na 18. ili barem 20.polju koja će biti isturenija od protivnikove, kako bi se poslao inicijalni kjub. Bijeli vodi nešto u trci dok je crni na baru, ali sve ostalo je jednako ako ne i gore po bijelog. Zaostali checker, prekrcano 8.polje i nefleksibilna pozicija. Za razliku od crnog koji ima lagan take.

First you have to escape with back checkers to midpoint or make anchor on 18pt or at least 20pt which is more advanced then opponent's one to send initial cube. White is ahead in race while black is on the bar but everything else is equal if not even worse for white. Back checker still on 24pt and 8pt stack with no flexibility. On other side black has better distribution with spare on 6pt and smaller stack on 8pt so has easy take.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	64,99% (G: 19,75% B: 0,76%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35,01% (G: 8,57% B: 0,35%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65,30% (G: 19,92% B: 0,76%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,70% (G: 8,27% B: 0,32%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,416
Double:	+0,854

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,625
Double/Take:	+0,594 (-0,031)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,375)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,009 (+0,615...+0,634)
Confidence Double:	± 0,012 (+0,582...+0,606)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 2 hours 13 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Kod 0-0 još nekako, double je 0.031 greška, ali pri 6-4/9 kada vodi i nedostaju mu 3 boda, bijeli treba biti suzdržan ako ima imalo šansi za gammon, koji ga vodi na Crawfordovu igru. Ukoliko okrene kocku i dobije gammon, ima poen viška. Crni će biti sretan uzeti špekulativni kjub i vratiti ga 1. prilikom, a bijeli opet neće moći iskoristiti sva 4 boda.

For money double is 0.031 error but at this score when white is ahead and need 3 pts he has to be more conservative with cube and has to go for gammon which brings him to Crawford game. If he turns the cube and wins gammon, he has one point more than he needs. Black will be happy to take such speculative cube and send it back at his first opportunity while white will again has one spare point if get win in that case.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	65,09% (G: 19,51% B: 1,65%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,91% (G: 8,35% B: 0,40%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65,28% (G: 19,86% B: 2,29%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34,72% (G: 8,32% B: 0,68%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,482
Double:	+0,867

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,547
Double/Take:	+0,342 (-0,205)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,453)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,009 (+0,537...+0,556)
Confidence Double:	± 0,013 (+0,329...+0,355)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 56 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

doubling cube #004

2011-05-29T03:09:00.011+02:00

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 105

9 point match

pip: 107
score: 4

is Player 1

XGID=--bCBDBB---------bb-bcBca-:0:0:1:00:4:1:0:9:10

on roll, cube action?

Da li je ovo take? Sa dva checkera iza 5 polja duge blokade, otvorenim 6.poljem i bez viška checkera za igrati ukoliko ne baci trenutno šesticu, mnogi bi pasali kao crni. Što znači double.

Igrač koji odlučuje da li uzeti kocku treba izvlačiti jake strane pozicije. Bijeli ako ne baci 6 ili 3 uglavnom razbija blokadu. Osim toga 54 mu igra nezgodno, sve ostale 5 razbijaju 6.polje, 43 barpt, a da ne pričamo o 55 44 22. Čak i ako pobjegne s jednim checkerom bijeli može izgubiti. I za kraj crni uvijek ima posljednju šansu sa 23pt što uz izjednačenu trku daje take.

Is this take? With two checkers behind five points prime, open 6pt and without any checker to play with if not roll immediate six, many players will pass as black. Which means double.
Players who has take or pass decision has to seek for positive features of position. White breaks prime if doesn't roll six or three. 54 is uncomfortable roll for him, all 5s breaks 6pt, 43 breaks barpt. Also 55 44 22 doesn't play well. Even if he escapes with one back checker can lost this game. At last black always has 23pt anchor to play from there and hope for late shot. Everything mentioned with equal race gives him a take.

Money play RO

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,57% (G: 15,94% B: 0,62%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,43% (G: 4,94% B: 0,13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69,09% (G: 16,54% B: 0,62%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30,91% (G: 4,81% B: 0,12%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,486
Double:	+1,008

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,726 (-0,058)
Double/Take:	+0,784
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,216)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,006 (+0,720...+0,733)
Confidence Double:	± 0,010 (+0,774...+0,794)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 38 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Pozicije u kojima ima gammona, ali koje mogu otići i na jednu i na drugu stranu obično nisu dobar izbor za duplanje onome koji vodi. Rezultat 5a8a preokreće solidan double za money u popriličnu grešku. Leaderi šalju kjub kod 5a8a normalno u trci i u holding gameu. Dakle u pozicijama gdje nema gammona i gdje protivnik nema efikasan redouble (već je to pass).

Positions with gammons which can goes on both sides usually are not good choices to be doubled as a leader. They can send cube normally at 5a8a in races or holding games. In positions where gammons are unlikely and where opponents doesn't have efficient redouble.

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68,57% (G: 15,95% B: 0,66%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31,43% (G: 4,84% B: 0,15%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69,04% (G: 16,40% B: 0,69%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30,96% (G: 4,83% B: 0,23%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,486
Double:	+0,983

Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,655
Double/Take:	+0,577 (-0,078)
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,345)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double:	± 0,007 (+0,648...+0,662)
Confidence Double:	± 0,011 (+0,566...+0,588)

Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%

Duration: 16 minutes 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross